IMF WARNS HARD-AND-FAST SPENDING CUTS COULD DAMAGE GROWTH

A report from the International Monetary Fund cautions that hard-and-fast cuts across multiple economies will damage growth and impair the ability of Western countries to recover. Based on 30 years of data the IMF concludes:

“Our findings suggest that in today’s environment, fiscal consolidation is likely to have more negative short-term effects than usual and if many countries adjust simultaneously, the output costs are likely to be greater”.

Furthermore in the chapter titled “Will It Hurt? Macroeconomic Effects of Fiscal Consolidation,” the authors find that within two years of cutting the budget deficit by 1 percent of GDP, domestic demand—consumption and investment—is about 1 percent lower, and the unemployment rate is about ? percentage point higher. Because net exports––exports minus imports––tend to rise when budget deficits are cut, the overall impact on GDP is a decline of ½ percent.

Listen up George…

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-09-30/rich-nations-will-feel-the-pinch-of-budget-tightening-imf-says-in-report.html

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CHILD BENEFIT TO BE SCRAPPED FOR MIDDLE ENGLAND

Osborne announces first wave of welfare reform

Child benefit, currently a universal payment to all parents with kids in full time education, will be scrapped for higher rate tax payers. Any household where either parent falls into the higher tax bracket (earning approx 44k) will lose £20.30 per week for the oldest child and £13.40 per week for all other children. A couple with two kids will lose £1752 a year.
There is an anomaly whereby joint household income could be as much as £87,000 with neither parent reaching the higher rate threshold, but overall it’s difficult to argue against Osborne on this one.

In addition, Osborne announced plans to cap the overall benefits received by any single household to ensure that families aren’t better off receiving welfare than going out to work. Exceptions will be made if people are unable to work and therefore receiving disability allowance.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2010/oct/04/george-osborne-speech-conservative-conference

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1317438/Osborne-axes-child-benefit-higher-rate-taxpayers-slaps-cap-welfare-ensure-work-pays.html?ito=feeds-newsxml

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CONSERVATIVES TOO FOCUSED ON CUTS WARN BUSINESS LEADERS

Notice how the green eco-friendly oak tree logo launched under Cameron has reverted to flag waving Union Jack type. Same old, same old...

In an interesting take on the Conservative conference, Reuters today warns that business leaders are concerned that the conference has been all about spending cuts at the expense of setting out a coherent plan for economic recovery.

Adam Marshall, policy director at the British Chambers of Commerce (BCC) said “The government has set out its strategy on spending cuts, but we are pushing them to set out a clearer narrative on how to deliver growth.”

Another business leader who wished to remain anonymous added: “We’re in a dangerous space. They’re creating a perception that Armageddon is coming and it’s not encouraging. I know firms that are putting investment on hold.”

http://uk.reuters.com/article/idUKTRE69428V20101005?pageNumber=1

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REAL WORLD ECONOMICS MAY DELAY SOME SPENDING CUTS

Osborne might be firing on all cylinders for hard-and-fast spending cuts, but there are signs that some big savings will be held back until later into the parliament. With the small matter of compensation for existing contracts, along with the costs of mass redundancies, it’s dawning on Whitehall that it might just work out too expensive and impractical to cut as swiftly and as ideologically as they’d like. As such, the The Treasury is now looking to “reprofile” spending cuts to spread their impact more evenly over the coming years.

Welcome to the real world George.

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/6d914844-d18a-11df-96d1-00144feabdc0.html?ftcamp=rss

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SCOTLAND, WALES & NORTHERN IRELAND UNITED AGAINST CONDEM SPENDING CUTS

Alex Salmond tells it how it is. Slainte Mhath!

So much for the Tory conference slogan “Together in the National Interest.” It seems Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland aren’t on board – today all three of the devolved first ministers (along with their deputies and finance minsters), agreed a joint declaration against the ConDem coalition’s approach to reducing the deficit.

Alex Salmond, Carwyn Jones and Peter Robinson all call for cuts to be introduced over a longer period of time and argue that the current hard-and-fast plan is “entirely the wrong approach for the economy”.

They go on to say: “The devolved administrations believe that the proposed approach to public spending reductions by the UK government runs the risk of delivering significant economic and social harm and urge the UK government to reconsider its proposals.”

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-11492590

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Government’s ‘bonfire of the quangos’ plan will cost as much as it saves

More real world economics for Osborne…


Powered by Guardian.co.ukThis article titled “Government’s ‘bonfire of the quangos’ plan will cost as much as it saves” was written by Polly Curtis and Mark King, for The Guardian on Thursday 7th October 2010 18.30 UTC

The government faces a multibillion-pound bill to close up to 180 quangos and in some cases it could be a decade before any savings are felt, according to documents that show the scale of the struggle the Treasury is facing to cut the deficit.

The Cabinet Office is poised to publish a list of the organisations facing closure or merger in its “bonfire of the quangos” next week. But private papers reveal that in several cases the liabilities from pensions, redundancies and rental contracts could outweigh any of the savings being claimed for up to 10 years.

There are concerns within the government that quangos are not producing the immediate savings the coalition had hoped for to help obliterate the £153bn deficit by 2015, adding to the intense pressure on the chancellor, George Osborne, to find every penny to meet the target.

Osborne also came under pressure yesterday to extend the five-year deadline to tackle the deficit. The Scottish parliament, the Welsh assembly and the Northern Ireland assembly issued a statement urging a scaling back of the plans, warning that the economic recovery was becoming endangered by the cuts.

The statement came as more details of the job cuts within Whitehall emerged, with departments told to make up to a third of their employees redundant. The education department is understood to be looking for a 30% reduction in staff. In the Department for Culture, Media and Sport the 50 top civil servants were told last week to reapply for just nine jobs that will remain.

Details of the cost of closing individual quangos, seen by the Guardian, reveal the bill facing the government. The Audit Commission alone, which the communities secretary, Eric Pickles, has axed, is facing nearly £500m in liabilities. A letter from the chief executive, Eugene Sullivan, to the permanent secretary in Pickles’s department and the National Audit Office warns that the costs include £75m in redundancy packages and £15m in contracts for rented properties. There is also an estimated £400m in pensions liabilities. The letter, seen by the Guardian, warns that it could even be under a legal obligation to raise its fees charged to local authorities to conduct audits to cover the costs of closing down.

The annual budget for the commission is £200m, but the letter says that has already been reduced to £46m by 2014. If the winding-up costs are not mitigated, it could be 10 years before the government sees any significant savings from the closing down of the commission.

The Crown Prosecution Service, which is expected to be merged or dramatically scaled down, has submitted a bid to the Treasury for £40m to fund exit schemes, according to a leaked internal document. The annual budget is £82m and the document does not provide details of the cost of its pensions and other liabilities.

The nine regional development agencies, which have a joint budget for this year of £1.4bn to help promote industry around the country but are to be abolished, are understood to have liabilities in the region of £1.5bn. They are also tied into contracts that stretch beyond 2012 for business parks, wind farms and the media city in Salford and are also responsible for dozens of contaminated industrial sites, such as disused coal fields, which cannot be sold unless they are first decommissioned.

Standards for England, the local government watchdog, receives an annual grant of £6m, but the costs of scrapping in terms of its pension liabilities alone could be up to £12m. The Film Council, axed by the culture secretary, Jeremy Hunt, last month, distributed £160m over 10 years with an annual administration budget of around £3m, which Hunt has said would be better spent on directly making films. Its estimated winding-down cost, obtained under the Freedom of Information Act, amounts to £11.3m.

A General Teaching Council for England source said that their liabilities had not yet been formally calculated but that they were braced for them to be “significantly” more than their annual budget.

Chris Banks, head of the Public Chairs Forum, which represents quango bosses, said: “The scale of the potential changes is unprecedented, so it is vital that the reductions in overhead costs achieved by mergers, abolitions and changes to new arrangements are not wiped out by deterioration in the service delivered.”

An aide to the Cabinet Office minister Francis Maude said the costs of closing quangos would depend on how many staff transfer to departments and their success in renegotiating contracts.

In his conference speech this week, Maude said of the quango review: “It’ll help save money for sure. But the main purpose is to increase accountability.”

guardian.co.uk © Guardian News & Media Limited 2010

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Port cuts ‘to cost 60,000 green jobs’

Who needs jobs and alternative energy sources anyway?


The content previously published here has been withdrawn. We apologise for any inconvenience.

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ALAN JOHNSON TO TAKE ON GEORGE OSBORNE

Alan Johnson - shadow chancellor - ready to take the fight to Georgie Porgie

Working class boy made good lands Shadow Chancellor role to take on Bullingdon Tory toff over austerity spending cuts. Bring it on…

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-11499638

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alan_Johnson

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JOHNSON WADES INTO CONDEM SPENDING CUTS

Johnson lets Goergie know exactly what he thinks

In his first interview since taking up his new post as Shadow Chancellor, Alan Johnson today tells The Observer that planned ConDem cuts will be far worse than those seen under Thatcher in the dark days of the 1980s. One time postie Johnson rails: “If you think of Thatcher in the 80s, the most she cut was 10%, and we are still feeling the effect of that in Hull, the city I represent.”

It’s well known that Osborne has committed the ConDem coalition to 25% cuts so Johnson isn’t saying anything new here, but it’s good to see he’s already squaring up for a bloody fight…

http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2010/oct/09/conservative-spending-cuts-thatcher-johnson

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STUDENT FEES BRING FIRST BIG CRACKS TO CONDEM COALITION


Having campaigned against any increase in university tuition fess, and with every sitting Lib Dem MP having signed personal pledges to that effect, today’s publication of the Browne report could mark the first major challenge to the ConDem coalition. Lord Browne’s review calls for a lifting of the cap for student fees such that universities would charge anything upwards of £7000 a year. Average student debt could rise to £32,000, but with living costs included this figure could wind up to be nearer the 80k mark.

Not surprisingly students themselves aren’t shy in reminding Clegg & Co. of their commitments and have launched a campaign to try and hold the Lib Dems to account. Speaking prior to today’s Browne Report NUS President Aaron Porter said:

“Liberal Democrat candidates won respect and votes by signing our pledge to vote against higher fees and students will hold them to it. Graduates might have to contribute more overall, but that must not involve higher student debt on graduation or the cap on fees coming off, as we suspect the Browne review will recommend.”

So, the question is whether the Lib Dems will sell their student supporters down the river or bow to the Bullingdon boys and reinstate higher education as a privilege for the privileged…

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/education/educationnews/8054053/Lib-Dem-ministers-refuse-to-back-higher-student-fees.html

http://www.nus.org.uk/en/News/News/Students-campaign-to-hold-Lib-Dems-to-fees-pledge-goes-viral/

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